During his first term, President Donald Trump implemented a tariff policy aimed at protecting domestic industry and reducing the trade deficit. This strategy included imposing tariffs on products such as steel, aluminum, solar panels, washing machines and a wide range of goods from China. According to the Tax Foundation, between 2018 and 2019, these tariffs represented nearly $80 billion in new taxes for Americans, constituting one of the largest tax increases in decades.

The impact of these measures varied. On the one hand, some domestic manufacturing sectors experienced relief from reduced foreign competition. However, studies such as one by the Peterson Institute noted that the tariffs could cost U.S. consumers and businesses about $11.5 billion annually. In addition, employment in the steel sector decreased by 4.2% between January 2018 and October 2022.

This same institute highlights that the implementation of the Phase One Agreement between the Trump administration and China in February 2020 failed to de-escalate the trade war initiated in 2018. Despite the commitment to reduce tensions, tariffs between the two nations remained high, averaging 19.3% for Chinese imports into the U.S. and 21.1% for U.S. exports into China. In addition, the agreement called for China to increase its purchases of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion between 2020 and 2021, a target that was not met. At the same time, while China reduced its tariffs on other countries, the US increased its own, consolidating a more protectionist trade policy at a global level.

As it is, the trade war between the US and China, far from being a temporary dispute, has redefined the rules of international trade between the two economies. Over five stages between 2018 and 2022, tariffs have become the new normal, affecting not only bilateral trade but also global tariff policy. The permanence of these measures suggests that, regardless of future agreements, the U.S.-China trade relationship will continue to be marked by restrictions and barriers, with long-term impacts on supply chains and the global economy.

The international repercussions were also significant. Affected countries, such as Canada and the European Union, expressed their concern and considered reciprocal measures. The European Union, a major exporter of steel to the United States, was directly impacted by a 25% surcharge on its products.

In terms of inflation, although the tariffs raised the prices of certain products, the effect on overall inflation was modest during this period. However, a Federal Reserve study estimated that Trump's tariff policies resulted in the loss of approximately 75,000 manufacturing jobs.

Trump's tariff policy during his first term in office definitely had mixed results. While it sought to strengthen domestic industry and reduce the trade deficit, it also generated tensions with allies, increased costs for consumers and businesses, and had limited impact on revitalizing manufacturing employment. Trump is definitely tripping over the same stone twice.