[Op-Ed] Colombia is Colombia
Let's imagine for a moment a scenario that no one desires, but that's worth contemplating, what
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Let's imagine for a moment a scenario that no one desires, but that's worth contemplating, what would happen if Colombia were forced into commercial distancing from its main partners? In today's volatile geopolitical landscape, where social media can turn a diplomatic spark into an international fire, this imagination exercise might be more relevant than we think.
Credits: El universal
Suppose diplomatic tensions escalated to the point of affecting trade ties. Colombia, which has built an impressive commercial network over decades representing more than 34% of its GDP, would face an unprecedented challenge. We wouldn't just be talking about numbers in a PowerPoint presentation, but rather an economic earthquake that would shake everything from Bogotá's skyscrapers to the most remote coffee plantations.
What would happen to crude oil, the giant that represents almost a third of Colombian exports? The ports that today overflow with activity could experience a dramatic change. Where we now see a constant dance of tanker ships, we might find an unsettling calm. Thousands of specialized professionals, from engineers to international logistics experts, would have to reinvent themselves, and companies would have to struggle to find new markets in an increasingly competitive world.
Credits: Ministerio de Transporte de Colombia
Colombian coffee, the true aromatic ambassador that has conquered palates worldwide, would face its own dilemma. Farmers who for generations have cultivated the bean on the slopes of the Andes would have to contemplate an uncertain future. It wouldn't just be export statistics at stake; it would be family histories, centuries-old traditions, and entire communities that would have to adapt to a new reality.
Credits: Federación Nacional de Cafeteros
Colombian flowers, which today adorn celebrations like Valentine's Day from New York to Tokyo, could lose their main international showcases. The tourism sector, which has turned Colombia into one of Latin America's most vibrant destinations, could be affected by the ripple effect of diplomatic tensions. Cartagena, Medellín, and Bogotá could see their streets less lively, their hotels with more empty rooms, their restaurants with fewer international diners.
Credits: El colombiano.
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The blow to tourism would be particularly painful at a time when Colombia has just surpassed the historic mark of 6.2 million non-resident visitors. This sector, which has transformed the country into a preferred destination in South America, would see its remarkable growth threatened. Festivals that give life to cities like the Barranquilla Carnival, the Blacks and Whites' Carnival, the Flower Fair, and the Manizales Fair could lose their international shine just when they're reaching peak global recognition.
Credits: Colombia Turismo
Even more concerning would be the impact on the conservation of Colombia's extraordinary biodiversity. The páramos, which provide 70% of the country's freshwater and host species unique to the world, could be threatened if the lack of international resources hinders their protection. The Andean region with its 10,000 species, the Amazon with 6,800, and the Pacific ecosystems with 7,500 species need constant investment in conservation that could be compromised.
Credits: 360 Radio
The country of diverse ecosystems such as the Andean mountain range, the Amazon, the snow-capped peaks, its own islands, the vibrant Caribbean, and the vast plains of the Orinoco, could face new challenges in its fight against deforestation and climate change without the support of international cooperation. Colombia's privileged geographical position, with access to both the Pacific and Atlantic, would become a bittersweet reminder of lost opportunities instead of being the strategic advantage it represents today.
Credits: País Colombia
However, from this hypothetical exercise, we could also extract valuable lessons. Colombia might be forced to accelerate market diversification, strengthen ties with non-traditional partners, and develop new industries. The question wouldn't be whether the country could adapt, as Colombian resilience is more than proven, but rather how much time and resources it would cost to rebuild what political disputes could undo. In the chess game of international trade, each move must be calculated thinking several moves ahead, because momentary victories in the political field could translate into costly defeats in the economic terrain.
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