The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. government brings both expectations and uncertainties in trade and political relations between Colombia and the United States. In a recent talk in Bogotá, María Claudia Lacouture, president of the Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce, analyzed the potential effects of this new phase for both countries, highlighting both challenges and opportunities.

Lacouture explained that Trump's strategy, which focuses on prioritizing U.S. industry and security, could result in higher trade barriers for many countries, including Colombia. "Trade and diplomatic policy is a means to meet domestic needs in the United States," she noted.

High tariffs and the strengthening of local industries are two key components of this strategy, which could directly impact crucial sectors of Colombian exports, such as flowers, coffee, and bananas. "If a universal tariff of 10% were to be established, it would pose a significant challenge for Colombian foreign trade," she warned, recalling that nearly a third of Colombian exports go to the United States.

Despite these potential tensions, Lacouture emphasized that the trade relationship between the two countries has solid foundations, thanks to a trade agreement that has provided mutual benefits for several years. "The relationship already experienced a phase under the Trump administration, and it was amicable despite its differences," she said, underscoring the need to build on the progress that has been achieved.

However, issues such as drug trafficking and migration may become more significant on the bilateral agenda. Trump's security policy could place additional pressure on Colombia in sensitive areas like illicit crop control and border cooperation.

Lacouture emphasized the importance of Colombia adopting a pragmatic foreign strategy to navigate this new landscape. She recommended that “a pragmatic, calm, and unhurried country policy will allow us to generate more ties than tensions.”

On the trade front, she noted that Colombia has comparative advantages in products such as minerals, agribusiness, and textiles over competitors like China, Mexico, and Canada. Capitalizing on these advantages could help increase Colombia's share of the U.S. market.

Challenges and Opportunities

The global context poses significant challenges for Colombia. The "America First" policy and geopolitical tensions are redefining the rules of international trade, which could complicate access to traditional markets. However, Lacouture pointed out that there are clear opportunities if the private sector and government collaborate to strengthen the export offerings.

He emphasized key sectors including agriculture, food, plastics, and other industrial products.

In conclusion, she stressed the importance of fostering a more strategic export culture. "We pave the way for opportunities, but it's the entrepreneur who must follow through to seize them," she said.