The fate of Puerto Rico’s political standing, as it relates to the U.S., is being deliberated again in Congress as talks of House Bill 8393 reach a close during the tail end of the lower chamber’s 117th session.

If the bill became law, it would create a first-ever binding plebiscite cementing the island as either an independent nation or granting statehood. 

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland) told El Nuevo Día that although negotiating has been productive, the bill’s stewards need to reach agreements “very soon.” 

But House Representatives have been busy wrapping up the year with other legislation — including the Respect for Marriage and Eagle Acts — while there is a Democrat majority to advocate for them. 

There are other roadblocks, such as budget talks, that the House is hoping to wrap up before Christmas and avoid forcing federal agencies into working with stagnant budgets for 2023, an outcome that some agencies have called “devastating.” 

And if it wasn’t sufficient that HB 8393 has walls to break down, infighting between the bill’s purveyors has shone a light on a priority power struggle compounded with waning Republican support. 

Disagreements between Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González and House Democrats over whether there should be a minimum consensus appear to have revealed more personal differences toward Puerto Rico’s ability to decide its political future. 

The plebiscite is not the first of its kind. Over decades, there have been five previous referendums to move Puerto Rico away from its Commonwealth status, which critics say is the longest remaining colonial contract in history. 

Past referendums, though, have given PR citizens the opportunity to select between two polar opposites: independence and statehood, in addition to keeping its Commonwealth status. 

The difference here is that all past plebiscites were initiated by the Puerto Rican Government, and because the island is held federally to the U.S. Congress, the plebiscite results were nonbinding, albeit they showed voter temperature. 

HB 8393 aims to hold a vote on Nov. 5, 2023, and if there is a palpable majority, the vote will trigger either one of three procedures outlined, contingent upon what the electorate decides the future of Puerto Rico will look like. 

On the ballot, there will be three available options, pursuant to the available choices, in addition to the procedure that will follow once a vote is reached. 

Plebiscite oversight will be supervised by U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, who will see the plebiscite to its completion, and text in the bill also suggests that a Puerto Rico District Court will take on litigation.

The lead-up to this bill’s development, however, displayed the paradox beneath its goal. 

On one hand, the bill seeks to grant Puerto Ricans the constitutional right to select their political fate.

On the other hand, the ability to concoct and even see legislation through depends on the U.S. Congress, which unilaterally decides what the legislation will include, what it won’t, and what vote within the House is necessary for its survival, a journey that alienates mainland Puerto Ricans entirely. 

HB 8393’s survivability also depends on enough bipartisan support. Puerto Rico cannot vote in general elections, meaning they don’t get to choose who in Congress would safeguard their interests. 

Puerto Ricans do not have representation in Congress — save the resident commissioner, who has very limited purview — and can count on no elected official chosen by them to represent them in either chamber of Congress.