As the midterm elections approach, where Hispanic participation in the electorate is expected to be the highest in history for this type of election, the vote of this community could be decisive in determining the winner in the dispute between Democrats and Republicans.

Figures

According to data from the US Census Bureau highlighted by CNN, Hispanic voters represent 11%, a number that stood out in 2020 with more voters than in any previous national election. 

Additionally, this population represented a larger share in the 2018 midterm elections (9%) than any previous midterm election, turning out the same percentage of voters as in the previous presidential election.

In the 2002 midterm elections, Hispanics made up only 5% of the electorate.

"The high percentage of Hispanic voters in the last midterm elections was driven not only by the fact that Hispanics represent a larger share of American adults, but also by the fact that a larger share of them turned out to vote," it was pointed out on the CNN's report.

2018 saw an increase of approximately 50% in the Latino vote, after a record 40% of the Hispanic population eligible to vote showed up at the polls to exercise their right. This was twice the increase seen among non-Hispanic white Americans.

Senate race

The analysis highlights that it is at the state level where the power of the Hispanic vote can be determined this year.

According to various experts, control of the U.S. Senate appears to have been reduced to four key states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Considering that most Latinos live in densely populated states like California and Texas, this means that these populations make up a lower than average portion of the population in most states.

In the case of Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, the segment of the Hispanic population of voting age is smaller than the national level. For their part, other states present more favorable figures, as is the case of Arizona, with 22%, and Nevada, with 18%.

Although the analysis highlights that there are only nine states where the Hispanic portion of the population of voting age is greater than the national level, it also highlights that two of those states will be decisive in these elections.

“This means that Hispanic voters will likely have a huge influence on which party wins the Senate in this election. This is, in a way, a statistical anomaly,” was highlighted.

And the House of Representatives?

In the case of the vote for control of the House of Representatives, Hispanic participation does not seem to have much relevance.

The analysis finds that only 12 of the 50 districts have a significantly higher proportion of Hispanics than the nation as a whole. "The clear majority (64%) have a lower proportion of Hispanics than the national average," was noted.

The Hispanic influence for the control of this organism can be presented in the traditional states with a Latino presence in the Southwest, such as California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Texas, the same ones that seek to become strong in the dispute for the Senate.

Democrats or Republicans?

Analysts wonder about which party can benefit most from the Latino vote, and although the balance seems to lean towards the blues based on what the polls show, the margin has been shrinking significantly in the last 4 years and some surprises could be expected.