Colombian government officials.
Anuncio del acuerdo con el gobierno de Trump: de izquierda a derecha, la canciller entrante, Laura Saravia; el canciller saliente, Luis Gilberto Murillo; el embajador ante EE.UU., Daniel García Peña y el ministro de Comercio Luis Carlos Reyes.

The Case of the United States and Colombia: This Is How Trump Will Conduct His International Policy

Donald Trump had threatened tariffs, visa elimination and action under IEEPA. The crisis was overcome. What happened?

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This Sunday, January 26, marked one of the most tense moments in U.S.-Colombian relations in recent decades: Donald Trump's administration threatened to impose trade and diplomatic sanctions against the South American country, following the refusal of Colombian President Gustavo Petro to allow U.S. planes carrying deported migrants to land. However, the crisis was overcome after Colombia accepted the terms imposed by the Trump administration.

The White House announced the suspension of measures that included tariffs on Colombian imports, travel restrictions and the revocation of visas for Petro's government officials. Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo confirmed the agreement and declared the impasse overcome. Colombia agreed to receive its deported citizens under the U.S. repatriation policy as a measure to reduce diplomatic tension.

However, the actions of both governments left questions about the direction the bilateral relationship might take during Trump's presidency.

Let's go step by step.

The tarrif issue

In the midst of the dispute, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Colombian imports, a move that would have severely affected the South American country's economy. The United States is Colombia's main trading partner, accounting for 25% of its total exports. Products such as flowers, coffee, textiles, and bananas would have suffered a devastating blow due to the increase in costs for U.S. importers. An example of the seriousness of the issue is that the flower sector is about to enter the Valentine's Day season, which has its peak sales during February. According to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), in 2023 the tariff chapter of "Live plants and floriculture products" represented exports of US$2,115 million, while as of November 2024 US$2,182 million had already been exported.

Petro's response to impose tariffs on U.S. products would also have had domestic repercussions. This decision could have triggered price increases on key products such as machinery, technology and medicines, exacerbating inflation and affecting the purchasing power of Colombians. In addition, bilateral trade of nearly US$30 billion per year would have been put in jeopardy, putting thousands of jobs in both countries at risk.

There would also have been a significant impact on investor confidence. U.S. companies with operations in Colombia could have reconsidered their presence in the country, affecting sectors such as tourism, mining and oil.

The visa issue

One of the most sensitive elements of the crisis was the suspension of visas by the United States. This measure would have affected both ordinary citizens and government officials, limiting their ability to travel for work, educational or family reasons.

The United States is a key destination for thousands of Colombians seeking academic and employment opportunities. The interruption in the issuance of visas could have impacted international mobility, affecting both individuals and commercial relations between the two countries. In addition, the possibility of revoking visas for government officials would have complicated diplomatic dialogue efforts.

On the other hand, Petro mentioned the immigration status of more than 15,000 U.S. citizens in Colombia. This could have generated an exchange of restrictive measures, deepening the migratory crisis between both countries.

IEEPA and its potential impact

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is U.S. legislation that gives the president broad powers to impose economic sanctions in cases of national emergency. Trump would have considered using this tool to sanction Colombia, which could have had severe consequences.

The use of IEEPA would have allowed freezing financial assets, blocking banking transactions and restricting Colombia's access to international markets. This would have generated an immediate financial crisis, impacting not only the government, but also Colombian companies and citizens.

If Trump had applied these sanctions, it would have also affected bilateral cooperation on issues such as counter-narcotics and regional security. Colombia relies heavily on U.S. assistance to combat these problems, and a breakdown in collaboration could have significantly weakened its ability to address them.

Lessons from the crisis

The crisis between the United States and Colombia evidenced the fragility of bilateral relations under the Trump administration. Threats and unilateral measures generated economic and political uncertainty, highlighting the importance of privileging dialogue and diplomatic channels in conflict resolution.

Business leaders and organizations such as the Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham Colombia) and ANDI called for responsibility and immediate action to protect economic and social stability. According to Bruce McMaster, president of ANDI, "this crisis is not a game, it affects the future of Colombia as a collective".

María Claudia Lacouture, president of the AmCham Colombia Chamber welcomed the agreement stating that "it represents a fundamental step towards overcoming the crisis. The most important thing is that our compatriots will soon be received in Colombia, guaranteeing their right to return to their country. We also stress the importance that no tariffs will be imposed on Colombian products, and that, subject to verification of the reception process of the deportees, the special immigration procedures provided by the U.S. government will be lifted. Although this crisis seems to be over, what happened should be a lesson to reinforce the joint work between all sectors of society, in order to strengthen and preserve the strategic relations between both countries. Dialogue and cooperation must continue to be the basis of our bilateral relationship".

Finally, this episode makes it clear that heavy-handed policies and populism can have profound consequences in international relations. Both the United States and Colombia must seek a balance that allows progress on issues of common interest, without sacrificing the principles of mutual respect and cooperation.

Whit information from AFP

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