Colombian President Gustavo Petro and U.S. President Donald Trump. (Official photos taken from official websites)
Colombian President Gustavo Petro and U.S. President Donald Trump. (Official photos taken from official websites)

Trump vs. Petro: Far Away So Close

Although the diplomatic impasse has been overcome, many questions remain in the air about the future of the relationship between Colombia and the United States.

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The distance between the northernmost point of Colombia (La Guajira) and the southernmost point of the United States is only a two-hour flight. Even so, the two presidents of these countries are too far from each other.

To understand the state of relations between Colombia and the United States, it is necessary to analize the momentum of both presidents: Gustavo Petro in Colombia and Donald Trump in the United States. Both have adopted strategies that reflect their respective political priorities and local contexts. This pulse is taking place in a scenario marked by domestic pressures in both countries and shared challenges on issues such as migration and bilateral cooperation.

President Petro faces growing pressure due to his administration's lack of results in several areas. Although his government has insisted on respecting Colombia's sovereignty and dignity in the negotiations with the United States, the result has been that President Trump has imposed his ways and this will end up serving as a lesson to the rest of the world on how his foreign policy will be: slapping his hands on the table to impose his criteria.

President Petro could have generated a regional space to face the challenge of relating with an administration that is just starting, has all the political capital, and has some unanimity around sensitive issues. But he chose a different path, and now it seems very difficult for anyone to contradict the orders coming from the Wite House.

Trump confirmed his heavy-handed campaign rhetoric with deeds. He believes that to consolidate his political position at the beginning of his second term, he can only deliver on his promises. But his approach to migration is absolutely problematic. It implies a contradiction that few of his followers realize: Trump will have to surpass the number of deportations of the Biden Administration, which in the last fiscal year sent 271,484 migrants to their countries of origin. The contradiction is that even sending more people to their countries of origin will only solve a small part of the problem, because it is estimated that in the United States there are more than 11 million people without a defined immigration status. In short, Trump is applying a remedy that does not solve the problem.

His measures include reinstating the "Stay in Mexico" program, expanding mass detentions and deportations, and additional restrictions on the right to asylum. These policies, presented as a response to the immigration "invasion," seek to reinforce his image as a leader willing to protect U.S. interests at any cost.

But if it rains on Trump's side, it doesn't rain on Petro's side: he is a president that many of his opponents see as erratic, with lurches on many issues. In his reaction to the sending of a group of migrants by the Trump Administration, with only 15 minutes of difference he fixed two completely contradictory positions: first he welcomed them with "open arms" and then he announced that he would not allow the plane from the United States to land.

One of the flashpoints of this relationship is Colombia's role as a key partner in the U.S. strategy to address irregular migration. In recent years, the Darien region has become a hotspot for northbound migration flows. Pressure from Washington to tighten control in this area poses significant challenges for Petro's government, which also faces domestic demands for respect for migrants' human rights and sustainable solutions to this crisis.

However, the heavy-handed measures promoted by Trump also face criticism. Although his administration deports at a rate of approximately 600 people per day, it would fall short of the goal of deporting one million undocumented immigrants during his term in office. This leaves up in the air the already raised question of what will happen to the other 11 million undocumented immigrants who remain in the United States. Current policies do not address the underlying causes of migration, such as poverty, violence and lack of opportunities in the countries of origin.

From Colombia's perspective, Petro has emphasized the importance of addressing these problems from a comprehensive approach that combines economic development, international cooperation and respect for human rights. Although these proposals have a broader focus, they also face limits for reasons that the government itself has generated: it faces a complex fiscal problem due to high spending that many consider to have been inefficient. Many Colombians today wonder how President Petro will help solve the regional migration problem, if he has not even been able to guarantee the security of his citizens in his territory, as has happened in the Catatumbo region where a migration that some have already baptized as the largest movement of people in the last decades in Colombia is taking place.

The future of relations between Colombia and the United States will depend on how both governments handle these tensions and find points of convergence on issues of mutual interest. Not only their approaches to problems are different, but also their particular domestic situations, which give one, Trump, almost a free hand in his foreign policy and the other, Petro, imposes political and budgetary restrictions that are difficult to overcome in the 19 months remaining of his term in office.

Cooperation on issues such as the fight against drug trafficking, the protection of human rights and economic development in the region will be key to overcoming current tensions. But that will be a rocky road for bilateral relations. Trump wants to show results and will do so regardless. In that, President Petro can't go wrong.

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