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Who does the math? Concerns about the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Something is going on at the agency in charge of the main numbers for the U.S. economy. A media report reveals some of the problems they are facing.

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Nothing is more important to a country than its labor and inflation statistics. That is why what The New York Times revealed last week about the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency in charge of those issues, is very troubling.

According to the newspaper, “the agency has made a series of mistakes in recent months, including a premature release of the Consumer Price Index.”

But that's not the only challenge they face. “At the same time, the bureau - like other statistical agencies in the United States and around the world - faces long-standing challenges: shrinking budgets, declining response rates to its surveys, changing economic patterns in the wake of the pandemic and rising public skepticism about its numbers, sometimes stoked by political leaders like former President Donald J. Trump,” wrote Ben Casselman and Jeanna Smialek, the journalists in charge of the story.

What are the relevance of these issues? The first is the obvious one: inflation and labor market data are critical for economic policymakers. This information is key to making decisions that have an impact on the welfare of citizens, such as the level of Federal Reserve interest rates or labor market policies. Price stability and job offers for all are two of the main objectives of societies.

But there is another key factor, in the case of inflation. This particular figure has a major impact on the prices of financial assets. For example, if the inflation rate is high, it implies less value for fixed-income bonds and vice versa. If any financial trader gets the price information before others, he or she will probably have the opportunity to make large profits in a matter of seconds.

In fact, The New York Times refers to this possibility by stating that all these concerns “have raised questions about how the agency, which is part of the Labor Department, shares information and whether it has been giving an unfair advantage to Wall Street insiders who can profit from it.” 

As a result, the agency's inspector general and a congressional committee are investigating the situation.

The article consults the voices of several experts who agree that trust in the Bureau is maintained, but some steps must be taken to dispel all doubts.

Information is today one of the most important assets for societies, citizens, governments, markets, and companies. Something must be done to strengthen the transparency and accountability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This cannot be postponed.

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