At a Senate hearing on March 25, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard presented the U.S. Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment 2025. The report, which brings together the consensus of the nation's 18 intelligence agencies, addresses the major risks facing the nation. From drug cartels and cyber attacks, to geostrategic rivalry with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the diagnosis was broad and direct.

However, one notable absence caught the attention of analysts and policymakers: climate change was not mentioned once.

Immediate threats

In his speech, Gabbard underscored the threat posed by Mexican cartels, responsible for more than 54,000 deaths from synthetic opioids such as fentanyl in a 12-month period through October 2024. He also highlighted the decrease in illegal crossings at the southwest border as an achievement of the Donald Trump administration's deportation measures.

The report also details China's growing military and cyber capabilities, Russia's nuclear expansion, Iran's destabilizing activity in the Middle East, and North Korea's missile tests, among other risks.

Nowhere in the 5,000-plus word document is there any reference to global warming, rising sea levels, natural disasters or migratory pressures caused by climatic phenomena.

For many analysts, the omission is not an oversight, but a change in strategic doctrine.

According to Erin Sikorsky, director of the Center for Climate and Security, the exclusion of climate change is a serious sign of backtracking. Speaking to Axios, she said, "Unfortunately, we can't wish away the security threats associated with climate change."

Real impact

The omission contrasts with an increasingly evident reality. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in 2023 the United States suffered 28 weather disasters with losses in excess of $1 billion each, a record since records began in 1980. Heat waves in Texas and Louisiana caused many deaths in recent years.

The specialized site Yale Climate Connections detailed that these extreme events - including fires, hurricanes, storms and floods - caused the death of at least 492 people in 2023 alone.

In addition, the National Climate Assessment's Climate Change Impacts in the United States report warns that the country is facing:

- Increased and more prolonged heat waves.
- More frequent wildfires in the West.
- Coastal flooding from rising sea levels.
- Increasing public health risk from mosquito-borne diseases and deteriorating air quality.

Removing climate change from the official threat radar could have consequences on multiple levels:

1. Reduced military readiness: The Pentagon has noted in previous reports that extreme weather damages key infrastructure such as coastal military bases and affects troop mobility. Ignoring it can jeopardize the country's operational capability.

Setback in international cooperation: Allies such as the European Union and Canada have integrated climate change into their security strategies. The U.S. could fall behind in multilateral forums and lose leadership on the global climate agenda.

3. Reduced aid to vulnerable countries: Latin America and the Caribbean, which face phenomena such as droughts, hurricanes and food insecurity, could receive less technical and financial support if the U.S. stops considering climate as a risk factor.

4. Political polarization: The omission could reflect an electoral strategy. As the New York Times noted, the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, which influences the second Trump administration, proposes to eliminate climate policies "because of ideology."

The threat report not only assesses risks: it is also a roadmap that guides decisions on national security, budgeting, international cooperation, and technology development. That is why, for many, the omission of climate change is not only symbolic: it is strategic.