The Republican Party in Florida has experienced significant upheaval in recent weeks, partly due to a competitive primary battle between incumbent Gov. Charlie Crist and Cuban-American Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida State House, in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. The seat was previously held by Republican Mel Martínez, who resigned last summer. 

On Jan. 2, controversial Florida Republican Party chairman Jim Greer was forced to resign in the face of mounting criticism from prominent donors and the party’s conservative wing.  Greer had come under fire for taking sides in primaries in attempts to clear the field for his favored candidates. 

Supporters of the staunchly conservative Rubio were particularly upset with Greer’s closeness to Crist, who many conservatives view as far too moderate to be its standard-bearer in the U.S. Senate campaign. Crist hand-picked Greer to serve as chairman more than three years ago and Greer has been a vocal supporter of the governor’s campaign for Senate.

Greer had repeatedly survived previous attempts at ousting him as chair, and his resignation is seen as a sign of the growing strength of the Rubio campaign. Rubio was originally written off as a minor insurgency attempt with little chance against the extremely well-funded and popular Crist.

However, the governor’s history of taking moderate political stances, most recently supporting Obama’s economic stimulus, has enraged many conservatives, sending them flocking to Rubio.

Charismatic and photogenic, the 39-year-old Rubio is considered a potential future leader of the Republican Party by many national conservatives.

His stances on issues such as abortion, taxes, and Second Amendment rights have earned him praise and endorsements from many right-leaning figures and organizations, including South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and the Club for Growth, a pro-business group that has a track record of success in backing insurgent candidates in Republican primaries. 

This jump in support has quickly translated to success in the polls. In less than six months, Crist’s lead over Rubio shrank from the mid-30s to a statistical tie in one December poll, according to the website Pollster.com.

As the son of Cuban immigrants who fled the island following Fidel Castro’s takeover, Rubio is also seen as having potential to grow the GOP’s appeal to the ever-growing U.S. Hispanic population, even though he opposes immigration reform that includes amnesty. 

Florida is consistently a key swing state with a large Latino population. In 2008, Hispanic voter registration flipped from majority-Republican to majority-Democratic.

However, this change may partly be fueled by a shift in the demographic makeup of Florida’s Hispanics away from the dominance of the more conservative Cubans, which would minimize the advantage of Rubio’s Cuban heritage.

According to the Pew Hispanic Center, those of Cuban ancestry now represent a significantly smaller share (34%) of eligible Hispanic voters in Florida than they did in 1990 (46%). Meanwhile, Puerto Ricans and others of Latin American derivation represent a greater share of Hispanic eligible voters today than in 1990. 

In 2007, 29 percent of Hispanic eligible voters were of Puerto Rican ancestry, up from 24 percent in 1990. And the share of Hispanic eligible voters of other ancestry was 37 percent in 2007, a boost from 30 percent in 1990.     

Despite the narrowing polls, Rubio still faces a largely uphill battle.  Crist is one of the most prolific fundraisers in the nation. The most recent financial reports show that he has more than $6.2 million in his campaign account compared to $903,000 for Rubio.   

The winner of the campaign, which won’t be decided until Florida’s late primary date of Aug. 31, will likely be favored in the general election against Democratic frontrunner Kendrick Meek, an African-American congressman from Miami. 

Though President Obama won Florida in 2008 by a small margin, statewide politics have been dominated by Republicans in recent years, and polls have shown both Rubio and Crist running well ahead of Meek. ©2010