President Donald Trump signed executive orders Tuesday to raise tariffs on aluminum and steel by 25%, unleashing a new phase in his protectionist trade strategy. Although the measure seeks to strengthen U.S. industry, its impact is not neutral and could generate significant collateral effects on the global economy and citizens' pockets.

Trump has justified the decision by assuring it will reduce dependence on foreign inputs and strengthen domestic industry. "Today I am simplifying our tariffs on steel and aluminum. It's 25%, with no exceptions or exemptions," said the president at the signing of the decree. However, the measure has generated an immediate reaction from major U.S. trading partners.

Canada, the main supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States, along with Brazil, Mexico and South Korea, have expressed their concern. "We will react to protect the interests of European businesses, workers and consumers from unjustified measures," the European Commission said in a statement. France, for its part, warned that it will retaliate if necessary. "There is no hesitation when it comes to defending our interests," said Jean-Noël Barrot, France's Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs.

One of the hardest hit sectors will be U.S. manufacturing. Companies that depend on these inputs for the production of automobiles, machinery and technology products will see an increase in their production costs, which could translate into higher prices for consumers. It should be recalled that inflation was one of the sensitive issues that played against the Democratic candidacy during the last elections.

Maurice Obstfeld, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warned that "steel and aluminum are crucial raw materials for U.S. industrialists" and that this type of measure could "have the opposite effect to that expected".

The automotive sector has already begun to react. The main assemblers have pointed out that the increase in costs will inevitably be passed on to vehicle prices. In the aeronautics sector, the situation is similar. Aircraft manufacturing relies heavily on imported aluminum, which could affect airlines and end consumers.

The risk of a trade war

Trump's move has also put China on alert, which although not a major supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S., has been subject to trade restrictions in the past. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun warned that "there is no way out through protectionism, and there are no winners in a trade or customs war."

Moreover, the EU has already retaliated in the past when Trump imposed similar tariffs during his previous term (2017-2021), taxing flagship products such as bourbon whiskey and Harley-Davidson motorcycles. "If you impose tariffs on several sectors, it will lead to higher prices and create inflation in the United States," said French President Emmanuel Macron.

Beyond the international reaction, the move also has implications for the domestic economy. Although the government argues that the tariffs will strengthen domestic industry and reduce the trade deficit, economists warn that they could decrease the competitiveness of U.S. products abroad.

Inflation is another key factor. With higher production costs, the prices of goods that depend on steel and aluminum could increase, directly affecting citizens' pockets. Germany has warned about this risk: "In the end, raising rates hurts all parties," said a spokesman for the German Economics Ministry.

The U.S. Congress could intervene if the measure generates a significant impact on the national economy. Some lawmakers have already expressed their concern and have called for a detailed review of the potential effects of the tariffs.

In the coming weeks, major U.S. trading partners will define their response to this new tariff policy. Mexico and Brazil have indicated their intention to negotiate exceptions, while the EU has already made clear its intention to respond with countervailing measures.

Global trade faces a period of uncertainty. How these countries react could shape the future of trade relations and economic stability in the coming months. For now, the only certainty is that prices will rise, and consumers will end up footing the bill for this new tariff battle.