When Elon Musk called Donald Trump’s signature bill a “disgusting abomination,” many thought he was overreacting. But the numbers back him up. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by the House of Representatives and now under Senate review, could add as much as $3 trillion to the U.S. deficit between 2025 and 2034, according to official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

This omnibus legislation — over 1,000 pages long — encapsulates Trump’s economic playbook: lower taxes, deregulation, and higher spending on defense and border security. The problem, as economists and business leaders point out, is that the plan lacks a sustainable source of funding.

At the core of the bill is Title XI, ironically labeled “Committee on Ways and Means, The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” This section includes the most ambitious fiscal provisions, such as:

1. Eliminating income tax on tips for service workers.
2. Expanding the child tax credit and the standard deduction.
3. Repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), a measure designed to ensure wealthy individuals pay at least some tax.
4. Creating new exemptions for small businesses, rural areas, and savers using so-called Trump Accounts — a tax-free personal savings vehicle.

While these measures offer direct relief to families and businesses, they also represent a projected $3.7 trillion loss in tax revenue over the next decade, according to the joint report from the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Savings That Don’t Add Up

The bill includes $1.3 trillion in spending cuts, focused on programs like Medicaid, energy subsidies, and environmental benefits. But the math still doesn’t balance. Worse, the CBO projects that an additional $551 billion will be needed just to cover interest on the added debt, bringing the total fiscal cost of the law to $3 trillion.

If passed in its current form, the public debt-to-GDP ratio would rise from 117.1% to 123.8% by 2034, according to official projections.

Fiscal Populism

Elon Musk isn’t alone in his concerns. Moderate Republican senators such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have warned the bill is fiscally reckless. On the other side, conservative senators like Rand Paul say it doesn’t go far enough in cutting spending.

Musk’s breaking point appears to be the contradiction at the bill’s core. As several outlets have reported, he criticized the legislation for ramping up defense spending, expanding rural incentives, and adding more tax-free savings vehicles — all without any clear plan to raise revenue or make meaningful spending cuts. As a business leader, Musk fears the bill could destabilize the country’s finances, drive up capital costs, and deter long-term investment.

A Campaign Act?

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is not just a legislative package — it’s also a campaign manifesto. It includes eye-catching proposals like tax-free overtime and tips, as well as the patriotic-sounding Trump Accounts.

But the cost of these promises is real. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, if the temporary provisions become permanent — as is often the case — the total fiscal impact could balloon to $5 trillion over the next decade.

What Happens Now?

The Senate still needs to debate and vote on the bill. The White House is pushing for approval before July 4, hoping to frame it as a symbolic win for Trump. But divisions within the Republican Party — and pressure from business figures like Musk — make passage without amendments increasingly uncertain.

The battle lines are clear: a sweeping tax and spending bill in an era of high debt, championed by a government that promises growth and efficiency, but may leave behind an unaffordable bill. And on this issue, Elon Musk may very well be right.