Consumer confidence in the United States fell in May 2025 to its second lowest level since records have been kept, according to preliminary data from the index compiled by the University of Michigan. The drop reflects not only unease with prices, as in previous years, but growing concern about income and employment.

As reported by Axios, the consumer sentiment index stood at 50.8 in the first half of May, just above the historic floor of 50 recorded in June 2022, when inflation peaked at 9%. This new drop marks a break with the trend of economic resilience observed in previous cycles, when consumer pessimism did not necessarily coincide with a real slowdown.

The survey's director, Joanne Hsu, explained to Axios that the composition of concerns has changed. "We are seeing significant declines at all income levels, but most notably at the top of the income distribution," she said in a post quoted by the media outlet.

One of the most relevant findings of the survey is that roughly two-thirds of consumers anticipate an increase in unemployment over the next 12 months, the highest proportion since 2009. This trend represents the fifth consecutive monthly increase and doubles the level observed last November. In 2022, by comparison, only 32% of respondents shared this fear.

What adds gravity to the current outlook is that for the first time in years, higher-income consumers also expect an economic downturn, breaking the usual gap between optimism among better-off households and pessimism among lower-income households.

The University of Michigan report also reveals a shift in the way Americans interpret the causes of economic problems. In recent years, price pressures were not attributed to specific policies. But in May 2025, nearly 75% of respondents spontaneously mentioned tariffs as a factor that could exacerbate inflation or cause economic harm, up from 60% who pointed to them in April.

The concern is also reflected in one-year inflation expectations, which shot up to 7.3%, the highest level since 1981, even as current inflation is lower than in 2022.

According to Axios, these indicators suggest that the link between social unrest and economic strength, which was partially broken in 2022, could be re-establishing itself in a more serious and deeper way. This time, experts warn, the pessimism is not just psychological or conjunctural: it could be an early sign of structural weakness in the labor market and in household spending capacity.