With the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church enters a period of mourning, but also of transition. In parallel to the funeral rites, the Vatican is preparing for the celebration of the conclave, the reserved, solemn and highly symbolic process in which cardinals from all over the world elect the new pontiff. And with it, a question that resonates strongly among the Latin American faithful is once again being asked: is it possible to have a new Latin American pope?

The successor of Peter is elected by the College of Cardinals, currently composed of 239 cardinals, of whom 136 have the right to vote in the conclave because they are under 80 years of age. Of those, more than 70% were appointed by Pope Francis, which implies a majority formed under his influence, both ideological and pastoral.

This college has a global character, but Europe remains the most represented bloc, with about 39% of the electors, followed by Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America. Although Pope Francis opted for a more decentralized Church and promoted cardinals from peripheral regions, the institutional weight of Europe is still considerable.

What about Latin America?

The region retains a prominent position in the Catholic Church. With nearly 40% of the world's Catholics, Latin America is a spiritual and social pillar for Catholicism. However, in the list of 15 candidates for the papacy drawn up by the AFP agency, only one name with Latin American ties appears among the favorites: that of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, born in the United States but with a long pastoral career in Peru.

This does not mean that Latin America has no relevant figures. Countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Argentina have active and respected cardinals, but none of them are today among the main candidates indicated by Vatican analysts.

What factors are taken into account in a papal election?

The profile of the next pope will depend on several factors:
- Age and health: someone younger than Francis at the time of his election (76 years old) will probably be sought.
- Continuity or change: the cardinals will have to decide whether they want to follow Francis' line or correct his course.
- Geopolitical and cultural balance: the 2013 election broke with the European tradition by electing an Argentinean. Today, Africa and Asia emerge as new sources of leadership.
- Governance capacity: the next pope will have to lead not only spiritually, but also manage an institution of global scope, with internal and external challenges.

And then, can there be another Latin pope?

Yes, it is possible, but today it does not seem likely. The region has pastoral leadership, but currently lacks a figure that meets the political, diplomatic and international visibility conditions required for such a complex election as that of the pope. Moreover, the geopolitical and demographic scenario favors other emerging regions, such as Africa and Asia.

15 papables according to AFP (April 2025)

Europe
- Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)
- Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy, 69)
- Claudio Gugerotti (Italy, 69)
- Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66)
- Anders Arborelius (Suecia, 75)
- Mario Grech (Malta, 68)
- Peter Erdo (Hungría, 72)
- Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourgo, 67)

Asia
- Luis Antonio Tagle (Filipinas, 67)
- Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar, 76)

Africa
- Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)
- Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (RD Congo, 65)

Americas
- Robert Francis Prevost (USA/Peru, 69)
- Timothy Dolan (USA, 75)

Other papables not included by AFP

1. Christoph Schönborn (Austria, 80)
Archbishop of Vienna. Although he is no longer an elector, his name is still respected for his intellectual and theological profile. He was editor of the Catechism and mentor to many bishops. Close to Ratzinger and Francis.

2. Leonardo Ulrich Steiner (Brazil, 73)
Archbishop of Manaus, defender of the indigenous peoples and the Amazon. His role in the Pan-Amazonian Synod put him on the radar as a Latin American pastoral figure.

3. Paulo Cezar Costa (Brazil, 57)
Archbishop of Brasilia. Well-educated theologian, open to dialogue and considered one of the young faces of the Brazilian episcopate. Named Cardinal by Francis in 2022.

4. José Tolentino de Mendonça (Portugal, 58)
Theologian, poet and current prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education. A figure with a Franciscan sensibility, respected for his capacity for dialogue with the modern world.

5. Dieudonné Nzapalainga (Central African Rep., 57)
Archbishop of Bangui. He played a key role in the peace processes during the civil war. Pope Francis visited him in 2015, and his leadership in conflict contexts has earned him great recognition.

With information from AFP.