The stock market replicates initial European optimism
Investments in green energy and ecological transition? Three Spanish companies are the best predictors of the effect of the change in U.S. leadership.
It should be recognized that, of all the agents waiting for the results of the 2020 elections, the multiple stock market indexes were perhaps the most unstable. Profoundly unpredictable because they have not been bowing to the president's anti-ecological and protectionist delusions for the last four years, but especially attentive to the possible conflict in the streets and everything that could be dragged along with it.
In spite of not having distinguished himself by any variable of humanist policy, it is true that Donald Trump favored the biggest companies during his time in office, lowering any type of fiscal regime to the detriment of the middle class, a movement that benefited in technological, automobile and fossil fuel sectors along with most big companies in general.
The day began very strongly for the big technology institutions — Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple — with increases from 4% to 8% that served as an active shelter. The Turkish lira was plummeting and its consequences first in the form of the resignation of the country's Finance Minister, then in the Spanish banks BBBVA and Banco Santander, where Ibex 35 fell behind its European partners and euphoria began.
Enthusiasm for Joe Biden was evident in the S&P (3%), the Dow Jones (2.3%), and the Nasdaq 100 (4.5%). For a few long hours, however, the worst possible scenario was in the air with a legal battle and the absence of a president — the worst possible combination in financial terms. Given Donald Trump's lack of transparency, it still seems to be a possibility until the end of the year.
Those fears remained in the world of scenarios as the Democrats symbolically secured their victory. This was one of the best scenes for many European leaders, whose concerns about the U.S. were about support for the WHO, the Paris Climate Accord, and a working relationship with NATO. It's why congratulations were sent to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris by some leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who almost seemed to be in sync with the stock market excitement.
In the case of Spain, despite the setback caused by the Turkish lira, it seemed a certain optimism also reigned before the possibility of stemming the flight of American investors, which even before the pandemic meant a drop of up to 57%. The slight increase in Spanish optimism does not end there as three big Spanish companies — Iberdrola, Siemens Gamesa and Acciona — are all betting on American renewable energies that predict better results and investments with a Democrat government than a Republican one.
To put an end to this first rush of economic predictions and superstitious congratulations so typical of the world of politics and finance, with its ups and downs, it seems that the announcement of a vaccine by the multinational Pfizer has infused all kinds of tourism-related companies with the same spirit. It's a global excitement that, for the time being, has already materialized in the stock market.